Commentary by Nina Jensen and Alex Rogers (original article here in Norwegian)

The year 2020 is a big one for the ocean. Several of the targets for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14, which is aimed at conservation and sustainable use of the ocean, are due as a stepping-stones towards achievement of the 2030 agenda. These include: sustainable management and protection of marine ecosystems, including the conservation of 10% of the ocean; to effectively regulate all fishing and to end harmful subsidies that contribute to overcapacity of fishing fleets and overfishing. In March the fourth and final Intergovernmental Conference on a new internationally binding agreement on conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) will take place. Then in June, in Lisbon, there is the UN Ocean Conference, followed by the Our Oceans Conference in Palau in August. Two other meetings of high significance for the ocean take place in the final quarter of 2020. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is holding its 15^th Conference of Parties in Beijing in October where the strategy for the convention will be set for the following decade. This is followed in November by the 26^th Meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow, the last meeting before the Paris Agreement comes into force in 2021.

 With all this attention on the ocean 2020 might be welcomed as a year of potential positive change for the ocean. Some signs are good. It is estimated that at present 7.63% of the ocean is covered by marine protected areas, an area of over 27 million km². This seems to be well on the way to the 2020 target for SDG14 as well as the CBD’s Aichi Target 11 to conserve 10% of marine ecosystems. Looking at the exclusive economic zones of coastal states, national waters this climbs to nearly 18% cover. However, areas beyond national jurisdiction, which represent about 61% of the ocean only have 1.18% of area protected. Fishing is the largest driver of depletion of marine species and out on the high seas catches of sharks and seabirds are driving many iconic animals to extinction. The impacts are not only at the level of species, but entire deep-water ecosystems continue to be damaged or destroyed through the effects of bottom fishing, especially trawling on sensitive habitats such as cold-water coral reefs, sponge grounds and seamounts. This year will see the critical BBNJ succeed, be delayed or fail to achieve a legal framework for spatial conservation measures on the high seas.

In terms of regulation of fisheries we are not doing so well. There is evidence that reduction of fishing effort in the waters of developed States, such as in northern Europe, Canada, the USA and Australia and New Zealand has allowed many fish stocks to stabilise and some to recover significant biomass (e.g. Norwegian spring spawning herring). However, many small fish stocks and many of those in the waters of developing coastal States and international waters are still overfished. There is evidence that in some cases developed States have exported their overfishing problems to the waters of developing States. Although the statistics are unclear somewhere between a third to two thirds of fish stocks are overfished and the proportion is still increasing. As well as a significant food-security issue this represents an estimated global economic loss of US$83 billion. Part of the issue is that a quarter of fisheries remain unassessed. For small fish stocks and those in the waters of developing States expensive modern fisheries stock assessment and management methods are not appropriate. Instead, methods of fishery assessment based on assessing trends in catches over time and community-based management approaches are needed. These need investment to become operational and financial assistance will inevitably be required to bring these fisheries to a state of sustainability. It is in such regions that problems of illegal fishing are most prevalent so continued international efforts to eliminate this scourge such as through ratification of the Port States Measures Agreement are needed urgently. Negotiations on fisheries subsidies at the World Trade Organisation are also due to be completed with an agreement at the 12^th Ministerial Conference in June.Underlying these issues are the global effects of climate change. This years IPCC Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere underlined the large-scale and accelerating change that marine ecosystems are experiencing as a result of climate change. The ocean is warming, becoming more acidic, losing oxygen and sea levels are rising faster than previously predicted. This has already caused large-scale changes in the distribution of marine species and led to the destruction of iconic marine ecosystems including most notably coral reefs, the most biodiverse habitat in the ocean. The science is very clear, if we move beyond 1.5^oC of warming, coral reefs will become largely extinct and many other ecosystems such as mangrove forests, seagrass beds and salt marshes will be at risk. Fisheries production is likely to decline and stocks are already moving polewards. Whilst some developed States in regions such as the northern Atlantic may benefit from these changes developing states in the tropics are highly vulnerable. The present commitments to the Paris Agreement put the Earth on a trajectory for a 3.2^oC temperature rise by the end of the century. This essentially represents a different planet to the one that human civilisation has grown in. For many ocean ecosystems and people living on low-lying islands or coastal zones the results will be devastating. The 26^th Conference of Parties for the UNFCCC will therefore be a watershed moment when governments of the world decide whether to avert an ecocidal catastrophe or to continue playing an international game of bluff that will end in the extinction of ocean species, habitats and the death of many people.

The stakes for 2020 could not be higher for the ocean and for us.